How do I decide how much festive stock to make or buy?
Start from your own past orders, test demand with pre-orders and keep the first batch cautious; here is a method with illustrative numbers you can replace with yours.
The cost of guessing wrong
Make too little and you turn away customers during your busiest weeks. Make too much and your money is locked in boxes that nobody wants after the festival. For a tiny seller the second risk is usually heavier, because cash is limited. So the aim is a cautious first batch, then top-ups if demand shows up.
Step one: look at what you actually sold
Open your orders list in the Varchas admin and look at the same period in a past season, if you have one. Note how many units of each product sold, and how fast. This is your best evidence. If you have no past data, use your last few normal weeks as a base and be extra careful.
Do not use numbers from the internet or another seller. Their customers are not yours.
Step two: build a cautious number
Say last season you sold 40 festive gift boxes. This year you have more followers, but you are not sure. A cautious plan is to make about the same, say 40, and keep room to make more.
Write down the plan as three numbers:
- The base batch: what you will make now (say 40)
- The top-up limit: the most you are willing to add (say 20 more)
- The stop point: the date after which you will not make more
These are only illustrative; use your own.
Step three: test with pre-orders
Before you commit to the base batch, open a short pre-order. If 25 customers say yes in a week, you have a reason to make 40. If only 5 do, make a smaller batch. Running a festive pre-order as a small brand covers the details.
Step four: count your cash
Work out how much money is tied up. If a gift box costs Rs 300 to make and you plan 40, that is Rs 12,000 in stock. Ask whether you can afford to hold it if only half sells. If not, shrink the batch.
Step five: plan for leftovers
Decide in advance what happens to unsold items. Can you sell them after the festival at a small discount? Are they useful as everyday gifts? Is there a shelf life? Items that expire or go out of season are the riskiest, so make fewer of them. Bulk reorder discount vs cash locked shows why a cheaper bulk price is not always cheaper.
Step six: leave a gap for surprises
A supplier may be late or a batch may spoil. Keep a small buffer, but do not double the numbers out of fear.
What not to claim
Do not tell yourself you can predict demand. You can only watch it and respond. A note of what sold, when, and what you ran out of is more valuable than any forecast.
Track while it runs
During the selling weeks, check stock regularly and adjust. Setting a reorder point for your products helps you decide when to top up.